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S&P 500Reference snapshot
October 7, 2026
October 7, 2026
Refreshes Thursdays at 5 PM ET
TOPS & BOTTOMS METER
01 / THE PRESENTNeutral
Neither fear nor greed has the final word.
Bottom forming?
No
No clear signs of a market low.
Top forming?
Watch
Some signs of a top taking shape.
The S&P 500 sits 2.4% below its all-time high.
WEEKS LIKE THIS02 / THE PAST
Mostly
more gains.
more gains.
When sentiment looked similar and the S&P 500 was within 3% of its high, here’s what usually followed.
+3.2%
Median 13-week return
Positive 75% of the time+11.9%
Median one-year return
Looking further aheadTHE PATH WASN’T ALWAYS SMOOTH
A 5%+ drop before the next high14%
A 10%+ drop before the next high6%
For context, all weeks within 3% of a high saw a 5%+ drop first 13% of the time, with a median 13-week return of +3.0%.
A view of conditions, not a call on the next move. Historical patterns don’t guarantee future results.